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LMM MSM
2001-2050
LMM MSM
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Data from the REgional MOdel (REMO)

REMO

Regional focused climate models are needed to account for synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric features. Data from the so-called REgional MOdel (REMO) is used in order to get high-resolution data. The REMO domain covers a limited area of the globe and is set in the west-east direction from 30°W to 60°E and in the south-north direction from 15°S to 45°N. The area contains the Mediterranean Sea, the whole subcontinent of West Africa, tropical Africa and the Arabic Peninsula. Several REMO runs are used in order to force the LMM. The past period starts in 1960 and ends in 2000. The data set consists of three ensemble runs that account for uncertainties arising from the mainly unknown initial conditions.

REMO climate projections

In addition climate projections are available for the period of 2001 to 2050 according to the climate scenarios A1B and B1 as well as land use and cover changes that are in line with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (see page "Scenarios"). Both scenarios lead to a prominent surface heating and a weakening of the hydrological cycle over most of tropical Africa. The temperature increase is mostly pronounced in the 2040th in scenario A1B. The maximum temperature increase is found in the tropical region at about 10°N. Unlike the global circulation models of the IPCC 4th assessment report predict the highest temperature increase over the area of the Saharan desert. REMO is simulating a prominent precipitation decrease in most parts of West and Central Africa. By contrast precipitation is projected to increase around the windward side of the Guinean Mountains and in most parts of East Africa. It turns out that land use and land cover changes are primarily responsible for the simulated climate response (Paeth et al. 2007).

Correction of REMO precipitation

The simulated precipitation of the REMO runs shows discrepancies relative to observed precipitation from the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD). In order to minimise the REMO model bias with regard to precipitation the rainfall data was corrected relative to Climatic Research Unit (CRU) precipitation.
Ta [°C]: 1960-2000 ΔTa [°C]: 2021-2030 ΔTa [°C]: 2041-2050
a)
b) c)
A1B
d)
e)
  B1

  • Fig. 1: (a) Averaged mean annual temperature (Ta in °C) for 1960 to 2000. Differences in the averaged mean annual temperature (ΔTa in °C) between (b) 2021 to 2030 of the A1B scenario and the period 1960 to 2000. (c) Same as (b) but for the last decade of the A1B scenario (2041-2050). (d) And (e) same as (b) and (c) but for the B1 scenario.

    • RRa [mm]: 1960-2000 ΔRRa [mm]: 2021-2030 ΔRRa [mm]: 2041-2050
    a)
    		b) c)
    A1B
    d)
    		e)
      B1

  • Fig. 2: (a) Averaged annual precipitation amount (RRa in mm) for 1960 to 2000. Differences in the averaged annual precipitation amount (ΔRRa in mm) between (b) 2021 to 2030 of the A1B scenario and the period 1960 to 2000. (c) Same as (b) but for the last decade of the A1B scenario (2041-2050). (d) And (e) same as (b) and (c) but for the B1 scenario.