Present-day simulations and projections of malaria

LMM simulations

Two-dimensional present-day malaria ensemble runs were performed by the LMM on a 0.5° grid for 1960 to 2000 (see page "1960-2000"). The LMM was driven by high resolution data from REMO, with observed land use and land cover. In a following step malaria projections were carried out for the period of 2001 to 2050 according to the climate scenarios A1B and B1 (Nakicenovic et al. 2000) as well as land use and cover changes (see page "2001-2050") that are in line with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

MSM simulations

The present-day REMO ensemble runs for 1960 to 2000 (Paeth et al. 2007; see page "Data input") have been used for the calculation of the present-day climate conditions of two monthly and three yearly climate variables (see page "MSM"). Since each of the three REMO ensemble members includes a continuous period of 41 years this data is based on the REMO simulation of 123 years.

The impact of climate change on the malaria seasonality was assessed by the MSM on a 0.5° grid. MSM simulations have been performed for the five decades between 2001 and 2050. The climate conditions of each particular decade is based on three different REMO ensemble runs, meaning that the "climate" conditions of each decade are computed by 30 years of data.